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Research and educational content only. Forecasts and backtests are not guarantees and are not investment advice. Read full risk disclosure
Data snapshot: 24.10.2026 21:00 UTC
Model calculation: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC / 04:30 Jerusalem (UTC+2)
Timezone: Unified (UTC)
Core status: ● Validation active
Bonds
[Horizon: T+1 Close]
HOLD

Tel Gov Shekel 5-10 ILGOVS510

Forecasting and modeling

Model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance
Chart feed: TradingView / exchange feed
Rates: N/A | Macro sentiment: GDELT Project
Latest reference level 519.73
Active-horizon target 519.73 0.00%
Raw interval (bands) S1 516.75
R1 522.71
Volatility (σ) 4.1% Assessment (Yesterday for Today): 521.53
Model quality (out-of-sample) 85.7% Out-of-sample sample: 200 sessions
Why this asset matters

Tel Gov Shekel 5-10 covers the medium-to-long nominal part of the Israeli government curve. It is useful when you want to read duration sensitivity and curve shape rather than only the very front-end policy story.

What usually moves this asset

This segment is often influenced by domestic inflation expectations, global bond-market tone, fiscal risk, term premium and the market view on medium-horizon policy and growth.

How to read this page

Use this page as a duration-sensitive macro layer. It becomes most valuable when compared with the 0-2 segment and IL10Y to judge how the curve is moving.

Methodology and dashboard reading (Model Card)
Model architecture:
Tree-ensemble architecture (Random Forest / gradient-boosted logic) built on price structure, volatility regime, macro-relative features, cross-asset context and sentiment inputs. For non-FX assets, the model is not centered on rate differentials alone.
Horizons (Targets):
T+1: Direct forecast for the currently displayed horizon close.
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: asset_model_targets_1m_1y_nonfx
Validation:
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.
Trading definition of the signal:
  • Entry: At spot price (snapshot before model calculation). Exit: At active-horizon close.
  • Divergence: If the technical trend is falling but the signal is BUY, the model has detected a local oversold condition and is trading a rebound (mean reversion).
  • Execution risk: The signal is not investment advice and does not include sizing. The model does not account for broker spreads, slippage, or carry costs (swap/rollover for FX).
  • News risk: At extreme risk sentiment (GDELT), raw bands are not calibrated for outliers. The probability of fat tails increases.

1. Current market regime (Technical & Macro View)

Heuristic regime gauges
1W
Neutral
1M
Neutral
6M
Neutral
Heuristic regime display for page context, not a price-return backfill.
Heuristic regime indicators
Regime oscillator Displayed as a heuristic regime oscillator for page context. In the current version, this is not a full classical RSI calculation from the complete indicator pipeline. 50.0 (Neutral)
Trend-bias proxyBearish
Macro / carry biasBelow SMA 50/200
Volatility (σ)4.1%
Display heuristics for current regime reading. Not a full classical technical-indicator calculation.
Volatility (σ)4.1%
Macro factors (Percentile Score)
Values are normalized from 0 to 100
Sentiment (GDELT NLP)
Tension indexN/A
StatusData unavailable
Source: GDELT Project API
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.

2. Deep quantitative analytics

Historical seasonality
This panel is temporarily hidden while historical monthly returns are being rebuilt from the same source-aligned series used by the model.
A real seasonality heatmap will return after monthly returns are recalculated from the same source-aligned history used by the model.
Medium-term continuation estimate
For indices, equities, bonds and commodities, the 1M-1Y block is shown as a continuation of the 30-trading-day ML anchor, not as an FX-style CIP fair-value model.
Inputs: 30-trading-day ML anchor + medium-term continuation profile
30D anchor: 519.73
Extension profile: Anchor continuation with volatility widening
Current level: 519.73
Medium-term scenario: 519.73
Mean-revertContinue
Gap versus 30D anchor: 0.00%
Model verdict: Balanced continuation

3. ML model assessment (Predictive Analytics)

Historical validation: model forecast vs reality
Bands are nominal (raw). Current empirical out-of-sample coverage: 92%. The model is still being calibrated.
For historical validation, this chart uses the same source as the model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance. This removes cross-source shift.
Return-space check: predicted vs realized active-horizon move
This view removes the false level-lag effect and shows the predicted change from the previous close.
ML model summary (tree ensemble)
Analyzing macroeconomic data, the ML model detects a mild bearish (downtrend) regime on the medium-term horizon. The news-sentiment layer is unavailable in this refresh and is excluded from the narrative interpretation. RSI (50.0) confirms the local structure.
Active-horizon signal: HOLD
Return to target: 0.00%
Attention (Risk calibration):
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 92%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).
Directional model accuracy estimate 57.5%
Empirical coverage 92%
MAE edge Baseline (naive forecast) = tomorrow's price equals today's price. Edge = (MAE_naive - MAE_model) / MAE_naive.

MAE Model: 0.7689
MAE Naive: 0.7642+4.2% Edge
Out-of-sample sample Based on 200 recent out-of-sample sessions shown on this page. Small samples can materially overstate or understate stability.200 sessions

4. Probabilities and trading signals

Close probability over a 30-trading-day horizon Mode: Normal (Calm)
Estimate of the probability that price closes above or below target levels exactly after 30 trading days (T+30 sessions). Calculated via Gaussian CDF N(μ, σ). Does not account for skewness or fat tails during geopolitical FX shocks.
Close ABOVE level (Upside)
Level R1 (522.71)31%
Level R2 (530.51)4%
Close BELOW level (Downside)
Level S1 (516.75)31%
Level S2 (508.95)4%
Trading interpretation of the signal:
  • Instrument: ILGOVS510
  • Entry: At current session close (04:30).
  • Exit: At active-horizon close (26.10).
  • Model: HOLD (Expected return: 0.00%)
Signals are produced exclusively by the ML core and are not investment advice.
Attention: The daily forecast (left) is displayed as direct horizon estimates for each trading day up to T+30. The long-horizon block (right) is a structural scenario layer, so the trajectories can diverge.
Short-horizon ML expectations (daily)
DateML targetRaw interval (bands)Signal
26.10.2026 (Mon) 519.73 [517.11 - 522.36] HOLD
27.10.2026 (Tue) 519.73 [516.03 - 523.46] HOLD
28.10.2026 (Wed) 519.73 [515.20 - 524.30] HOLD
29.10.2026 (Thu) 519.73 [514.50 - 525.01] HOLD
30.10.2026 (Fri) 519.73 [513.89 - 525.64] HOLD
02.11.2026 (Mon) 519.73 [513.34 - 526.20] HOLD
03.11.2026 (Tue) 519.73 [512.83 - 526.73] HOLD
04.11.2026 (Wed) 519.73 [512.35 - 527.21] HOLD
05.11.2026 (Thu) 519.73 [511.91 - 527.67] HOLD
06.11.2026 (Fri) 519.73 [511.49 - 528.10] HOLD
09.11.2026 (Mon) 519.73 [511.09 - 528.51] HOLD
10.11.2026 (Tue) 519.73 [510.71 - 528.91] HOLD
11.11.2026 (Wed) 519.73 [510.35 - 529.29] HOLD
12.11.2026 (Thu) 519.73 [510.00 - 529.65] HOLD
13.11.2026 (Fri) 519.73 [509.66 - 530.00] HOLD
16.11.2026 (Mon) 519.73 [509.33 - 530.34] HOLD
17.11.2026 (Tue) 519.73 [509.01 - 530.67] HOLD
18.11.2026 (Wed) 519.73 [508.71 - 530.99] HOLD
19.11.2026 (Thu) 519.73 [508.41 - 531.30] HOLD
20.11.2026 (Fri) 519.73 [508.12 - 531.61] HOLD
23.11.2026 (Mon) 519.73 [507.83 - 531.91] HOLD
24.11.2026 (Tue) 519.73 [507.56 - 532.20] HOLD
25.11.2026 (Wed) 519.73 [507.29 - 532.48] HOLD
26.11.2026 (Thu) 519.73 [507.02 - 532.76] HOLD
27.11.2026 (Fri) 519.73 [506.76 - 533.03] HOLD
30.11.2026 (Mon) 519.73 [506.51 - 533.30] HOLD
01.12.2026 (Tue) 519.73 [506.26 - 533.56] HOLD
02.12.2026 (Wed) 519.73 [506.02 - 533.81] HOLD
03.12.2026 (Thu) 519.73 [505.78 - 534.07] HOLD
Long-horizon structural expectations
Horizon endML targetDeltaRaw interval (bands)Signal
25.01.2027 (1 quarter) 519.73 0.00% [499.73 - 540.38] HOLD
25.04.2027 (6 months) 519.73 0.00% [488.39 - 552.69] HOLD
25.10.2027 (1 year) 519.73 0.00% [473.48 - 569.60] HOLD
Long horizons are shown as a structural scenario layer built from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift. Read them separately from the short-horizon ML forecast.

5. Research sandbox (Illustrative sensitivity)

Stress-test calculator (What-If Analysis)
Illustrates linear sensitivity to shocks (based on heuristic weights). Under stress, the risk corridor widens (volatility).
Crisis (-1)Peace (+1)
DXY down (-10%)DXY up (+10%)
Short-horizon ML forecast (up to 30 trading days)
Long-horizon structural scenario (up to 1 year)

6. Interactive chart (TradingView)

Attention: the base model calculation uses TASE / Yahoo Finance. The chart below shows the TradingView feed (TASE:729), so small quote differences are possible.
Related market pages
Bonds (Israel 10Y) IL10Y Tel Gov Shekel 0-2 ILGOVS02 Tel Gov CPI Linked 2-5 ILGOVCPI25 Open Markets overview Markets Bonds Markets Read the methodology Methodology
FAQ

Why track the 5-10 year segment?

Because it helps show how the medium-to-long part of the local curve is repricing.

How should I read the public signal?

As a currently displayed horizon close tilt in the medium-to-long nominal curve, not as a stand-alone policy verdict.

Why compare it with short-end bonds?

Because curve steepening or flattening often matters as much as the direction of yields.

Why can global bonds matter here?

Because longer-duration segments are often sensitive to global rates and term-premium moves.