Indices

[Horizon: H5 Close]

BUY

Index TA-35 TA35.TA

Forecasting and modeling

Model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance
Chart feed: TradingView / exchange feed
Rates: N/A | Macro sentiment: GDELT Project

Latest reference level 4,157.30

Active-horizon target (H5 forecast) 4,239.35 +1.97%

Raw interval (bands) S1 4,023.26
R1 4,291.34

Volatility (σ) 23.3% Previous completed assessment (H5): 4,439.86

Model quality (out-of-sample) 84.2% Out-of-sample sample: 200 sessions

Why this asset matters

TA-35 is the headline blue-chip benchmark of the Israeli stock market and tends to reflect leadership from the largest locally traded names. Because it is more concentrated than TA-125, its behavior can sometimes look cleaner, but it can also hide changes in broader market breadth. This page is best used as a high-level read on large-cap Israeli equity tone over the active public horizon.

What usually moves this asset

TA-35 is often driven by large-cap leadership, financials, global equity tone, domestic rate sensitivity and institutional risk appetite. Because it is concentrated, moves in a handful of heavyweight names can have an outsized influence on the index.

How to read this page

For TA-35, a short-term signal is best interpreted as a currently displayed horizon close tilt in Israeli blue-chip sentiment. Compare it with TA-125 when you want to judge whether breadth confirms leadership.

Methodology and dashboard reading (Model Card)

Model architecture:
Tree-ensemble architecture (Random Forest / gradient-boosted logic) built on price structure, volatility regime, macro-relative features, cross-asset context and sentiment inputs. For non-FX assets, the model is not centered on rate differentials alone.

Horizons (Targets):
H5: Direct forecast for the 5-session close (H5).
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: asset_model_targets_1m_1y_nonfx

Validation:
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.

Trading definition of the signal:

Entry: At spot price (snapshot before model calculation). Exit: At the 5-session close (H5).
Divergence: If the technical trend is falling but the signal is BUY, the model has detected a local oversold condition and is trading a rebound (mean reversion).
Execution risk: The signal is not investment advice and does not include sizing. The model does not account for broker spreads, slippage, or carry costs (swap/rollover for FX).
News risk: At extreme risk sentiment (GDELT), raw bands are not calibrated for outliers. The probability of fat tails increases.

1. Current market regime (Technical & Macro View)

Heuristic regime gauges

Strong growth

Neutral

Heuristic regime display for page context, not a price-return backfill.

Heuristic regime indicators

90.0 (Overbought)

Trend-bias proxyBullish

Macro / carry biasAbove SMA 50/200

Volatility (σ)23.3%

Display heuristics for current regime reading. Not a full classical technical-indicator calculation.

Volatility (σ)23.3%

Macro factors (Percentile Score)

Values are normalized from 0 to 100

Sentiment (GDELT NLP)

Tension indexN/A

StatusData unavailable

Source: GDELT Project API
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.

2. Deep quantitative analytics

Historical seasonality

This panel is temporarily hidden while historical monthly returns are being rebuilt from the same source-aligned series used by the model.

A real seasonality heatmap will return after monthly returns are recalculated from the same source-aligned history used by the model.

Medium-term continuation estimate

For indices, equities, bonds and commodities, the 1M-1Y block is shown as a continuation of the 30-trading-day ML anchor, not as an FX-style CIP fair-value model.

Inputs: 30-trading-day ML anchor + medium-term continuation profile
30D anchor: 4,674.51
Extension profile: Anchor continuation with volatility widening

Current level: 4,157.30
Medium-term scenario: 4,674.51

Mean-revertContinue

Gap versus 30D anchor: 0.00%

Model verdict: Balanced continuation

3. ML model assessment (Predictive Analytics)

Historical validation: H5 forecast vs reality

Bands are nominal (raw). Current empirical out-of-sample coverage: 84%. The model is still being calibrated.

For historical validation, this chart uses the same source as the model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance. This removes cross-source shift.

Return-space check: predicted vs realized H5 move

This view removes the false level-lag effect and shows the predicted change from the horizon start close.

ML model summary (tree ensemble)

Analyzing macroeconomic data, the ML model detects a confident bullish (uptrend) regime on the medium-term horizon. The news-sentiment layer is unavailable in this refresh and is excluded from the narrative interpretation. RSI (90.0) confirms the local structure.

H5 signal: BUY
Return to target: +1.97%

Attention (Risk calibration):
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 84%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).

Directional model accuracy estimate 58%

Empirical coverage 84%

4. Probabilities and trading signals

Close probability over a 30-trading-day horizon Mode: Normal (Calm)

Estimate of the probability that price closes above or below target levels exactly after 30 trading days (T+30 sessions). Calculated via Gaussian CDF N(μ, σ). Does not account for skewness or fat tails during geopolitical FX shocks.

Close ABOVE level (Upside)

Level R1 (4,291.34)92%

Level R2 (4,353.70)88%

Close BELOW level (Downside)

Level S1 (4,023.26)1%

Level S2 (3,960.90)1%

Trading interpretation of the signal:

Instrument: TA35.TA
Entry: At current session close (04:30).
Exit: At active-horizon close (30.10).
Model: BUY (Expected return: +1.97%)

Signals are produced exclusively by the ML core and are not investment advice.

Attention: The daily forecast (left) is displayed as direct horizon estimates for each trading day up to T+30. The long-horizon block (right) is a structural scenario layer, so the trajectories can diverge.

Short-horizon ML expectations (daily)

Date	ML target	Raw interval (bands)	Signal
26.10.2026 (Mon)	4,173.58	[4,075.07 - 4,274.47]	BUY
27.10.2026 (Tue)	4,189.93	[4,050.76 - 4,333.87]	BUY
28.10.2026 (Wed)	4,206.33	[4,035.87 - 4,384.00]	BUY
29.10.2026 (Thu)	4,222.81	[4,025.82 - 4,429.43]	BUY
30.10.2026 (Fri)	4,239.35	[4,018.87 - 4,471.92]	BUY
02.11.2026 (Mon)	4,255.95	[4,014.09 - 4,512.38]	BUY
03.11.2026 (Tue)	4,272.62	[4,010.96 - 4,551.34]	BUY
04.11.2026 (Wed)	4,289.35	[4,009.14 - 4,589.14]	BUY
05.11.2026 (Thu)	4,306.15	[4,008.38 - 4,626.03]	BUY
06.11.2026 (Fri)	4,323.01	[4,008.51 - 4,662.18]	BUY
09.11.2026 (Mon)	4,339.94	[4,009.40 - 4,697.73]	BUY
10.11.2026 (Tue)	4,356.94	[4,010.95 - 4,732.77]	BUY
11.11.2026 (Wed)	4,374.00	[4,013.08 - 4,767.38]	BUY
12.11.2026 (Thu)	4,391.13	[4,015.72 - 4,801.64]	BUY
13.11.2026 (Fri)	4,408.33	[4,018.82 - 4,835.59]	BUY
16.11.2026 (Mon)	4,425.59	[4,022.33 - 4,869.28]	BUY
17.11.2026 (Tue)	4,442.92	[4,026.23 - 4,902.74]	BUY
18.11.2026 (Wed)	4,460.32	[4,030.47 - 4,936.01]	BUY
19.11.2026 (Thu)	4,477.79	[4,035.04 - 4,969.12]	BUY
20.11.2026 (Fri)	4,495.33	[4,039.90 - 5,002.09]	BUY
23.11.2026 (Mon)	4,512.93	[4,045.04 - 5,034.95]	BUY
24.11.2026 (Tue)	4,530.60	[4,050.43 - 5,067.70]	BUY
25.11.2026 (Wed)	4,548.35	[4,056.07 - 5,100.38]	BUY
26.11.2026 (Thu)	4,566.16	[4,061.93 - 5,132.98]	BUY
27.11.2026 (Fri)	4,584.04	[4,068.01 - 5,165.53]	BUY
30.11.2026 (Mon)	4,601.99	[4,074.30 - 5,198.04]	BUY
01.12.2026 (Tue)	4,620.02	[4,080.77 - 5,230.52]	BUY
02.12.2026 (Wed)	4,638.11	[4,087.43 - 5,262.97]	BUY
03.12.2026 (Thu)	4,656.27	[4,094.27 - 5,295.42]	BUY

Long-horizon structural expectations

Horizon end	ML target	Delta	Raw interval (bands)	Signal
25.01.2027 (1 quarter)	4,814.89	+15.82%	[3,983.90 - 5,767.61]	BUY
25.04.2027 (6 months)	5,033.41	+21.07%	[3,715.27 - 6,668.99]	BUY
25.10.2027 (1 year)	5,514.22	+32.64%	[3,474.06 - 8,327.75]	BUY

Long horizons are shown as a structural scenario layer built from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift. Read them separately from the short-horizon ML forecast.

5. Research sandbox (Illustrative sensitivity)

Stress-test calculator (What-If Analysis)

Illustrates linear sensitivity to shocks (based on heuristic weights). Under stress, the risk corridor widens (volatility).

Geopolitical shock (GDELT): 0

Crisis (-1)Peace (+1)

US Dollar Index shock (DXY): 0%

DXY down (-10%)DXY up (+10%)

Short-horizon ML forecast (up to 30 trading days)

Long-horizon structural scenario (up to 1 year)

6. Interactive chart (TradingView)

Attention: the base model calculation uses TASE / Yahoo Finance. The chart below shows the TradingView feed (TASE:TA35), so small quote differences are possible.

Related market pages

FAQ

What does TA-35 represent?

TA-35 is the main blue-chip benchmark for large-cap Israeli equities.

Why compare TA-35 with TA-125?

Because the comparison helps show whether the broader market confirms or diverges from large-cap leadership.

How should I read an active-horizon signal on TA-35?

As a short-horizon lean into the currently displayed horizon close for large-cap Israeli stocks, not as a long-term allocation rule.

Why can TA-35 miss underlying breadth changes?

Because a concentrated index can remain stable even while participation weakens or improves across the broader market.